There is, however, a detail that gives pause – both in scale and in symbolism. This tragedy, by the calendar, preceded the beginning of the American Revolution by a single day. Yes, it was on April 19, 1775 – exactly 251 years ago – that the first shots rang out at Lexington and Concord. Armed citizens who refused to surrender their weapons to British soldiers opened a new chapter in the world history of democracy.

Between the two dates – April 18 and April 19 – lies a chasm of two and a half centuries and an abyss of meaning. But there is also a common thread: the question of who controls weapons in a society, and what price ordinary citizens pay for that. This thread is just as relevant today as it was 251 years ago.

THE STATISTICS IT IS CONVENIENT TO IGNORE

The debate over opening the firearms market during a full-scale war is, to put it mildly, absurd — not because it is the ‘wrong’ topic, but because the answer has already been written by reality, encoded in official police statistics that people prefer not to read. Let us look at the numbers.

The data reveal two distinct cycles of violence separated by a pre-war low. The first peak falls in 2014 (2,523 proceedings) – the year of Crimea’s annexation and the start of the armed conflict in the East: a sharp saturation of weapons, disorganization of law enforcement, and collapse of unified command. The following years show a gradual normalization – through to the 2021 minimum (300 proceedings). These figures should be treated as the baseline for comparison.

The full-scale invasion of 2022 produced a new spike: +543% relative to 2021 in the very first year (1,929 proceedings). A critical detail: the proportion of suspicion notices to total proceedings in 2022–2023 collapsed to 25–27% (compared to 77–86% in peacetime). This means the majority of cases were opened without identified suspects – a direct consequence of uncontrolled weapons proliferation and overburdened investigators. The positive trend of 2024–2025 (declining to 821–832 proceedings) reflects system adaptation, but the level remains twice the pre-war baseline.

This table records an even more alarming dynamic.

While the overall number of firearm-related crimes in 2022–2023 primarily reflected the chaos of the first months of the invasion, the homicide statistics point to a qualitatively different process. The year 2023 is the absolute peak across all 13 years of observation: 909 intentional firearm homicides – 25 times the 2021 minimum (36).

The most telling indicator is clearance. In 2023, it fell to 19%: only 173 of 909 cases had an identified suspect. In practical terms, 736 intentional homicides went unsolved within a single calendar year. For comparison: in 2018–2021, clearance rates stood at 90–98%. The recovery seen in 2024–2025 (52–64%) is a positive trend, yet it remains at least twice below peacetime levels. This means a significant share of those who committed firearm homicides during the active phase of the conflict remains unpunished – and continues to live in society.

AND THEN THE VIDEO APPEARS

And then a video appears that cannot be ignored.

During the terrorist attack in Kyiv, individuals in patrol police uniforms, upon hearing gunshots, simply fled – leaving civilians without protection. The recording shows a child forced to save herself on her own. The footage was published by TSN and Dzerkalo Tyzhnia. The officers have been suspended from duty. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has ordered a disciplinary investigation.

Declarations are good. But the question is not what the minister said this morning. The question is what happens after the investigation concludes – assuming guilt is established and the authenticity of the recordings is confirmed. If police leadership fails to demonstrate a genuine response – not a declarative one, but one with concrete disciplinary consequences – the problem will intensify. Not because ‘the police are bad,’ but because institutional silence following such a video legitimizes conduct incompatible with the status of a law enforcement officer.

Among a segment of Ukrainian police officers, a dangerous attitude has taken hold during the full-scale war. Wartime, where violence is normalized, only reinforces the self-preservation reflex – at the expense of the protection reflex. Fleeing a shooter is not the cowardice of individuals. It is a symptom of systemic institutional degradation that cannot be fixed by a single disciplinary inquiry.

THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION: WHAT THE RIGHT TO BEAR ARMS ACTUALLY GAVE

Let us return to the symbolism of the date.

April 19, 1775 – the Battle of Lexington and Concord. The first shots of the American Revolution. The shot heard round the world. And a few years later, the first modern constitutional democracy was born.

The right to bear arms did not merely allow Americans to win the War of Independence. It structured American democracy for two and a half centuries and embedded at its core the principle that an armed citizen is a subject, not an object, of power. This principle was enshrined in the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution (1791): “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

American statistics demonstrate the obvious: high firearms saturation correlates with higher rates of firearm-related crime. 79% of intentional homicides in the United States involve a firearm. In EU countries, that figure ranges from 20% to 40%. The American model is not a template to emulate in a criminological sense. But it is a template in a constitutional-democratic sense: the right to self-defense as the foundation of the relationship between citizen and state.

It is important to distinguish two levels of debate. The first is criminological: more guns = more of certain categories of crime. The statistics confirm this, and to deny it is to ignore reality. The second is constitutional-democratic: the right of an armed citizen as a deterrent against state arbitrariness and as the basis of popular sovereignty. These two levels do not contradict each other – they describe different dimensions of the same reality.

UKRAINE TODAY: A SOCIETY WITH WEAPONS IN HAND

Ukraine today is a society in which millions of citizens, weapons in hand, are defending the state from destruction. By estimates, as of 2025, between 6 and 10 million units of various types of weapons are in civilian circulation – including among demobilized soldiers and veterans. Some are legally registered. Some are not. This is a fact that must be lived with.

The gravest threat lies ahead. Hundreds of thousands of demobilized soldiers are returning from the front. Some with untreated PTSD. Some with weapons, legally or not. The experience of other conflicts – Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Balkans – shows that crime rates among veterans do not rise immediately, but rather 2–3 years after demobilization. That wave has not yet arrived. And if the state does not prepare, the police statistics of 2027–2028 will become the subject of parliamentary inquiries, not academic articles.

The question is not whether to ‘legalize or not.’ The question is what institutional culture we are building around this reality – and whether the state is capable of the accountability that follows from it.

INSTEAD OF A CONCLUSION: THE STATE THAT DOES NOT PROTECT — AND THE CITIZEN WHO PROTECTS HIMSELF

The American Revolution began because the state failed to protect its citizens – and so they took up arms themselves. The Kyiv tragedy of April 18, 2026 – and especially the video of officers fleeing a shooter while leaving a child at the center of the gunfire – is a painful reminder that this question remains very much alive today.

A police officer who flees a shooter and abandons a child to their fate is not merely a disciplinary matter. It is a symptom. A state that wishes to grant its citizens the right to bear arms – or that has already done so de facto, having distributed millions of weapons in the first days of the invasion – must first demonstrate that it itself knows how to handle weapons responsibly and protect those who protect it.

The statistics are incontrovertible: the full-scale war produced a sharp spike in firearm-related crime – +543% in the first year alone. But those same statistics show that in 2024–2025, the numbers began to fall. This means that society and the state are adapting. The question is: in which direction. Toward the rule of law and institutional accountability – or toward the normalization of impunity, in which police officers flee and killers remain unidentified.

Pre-war (2013-2021), Ukraine demonstrated consistent crime reduction, reaching a historic low of 321443 registered crimes in 2021, with approximately 50-54% suspect identification rates. The full-scale invasion immediately disrupted this trajectory. By 2025, registered crimes surged to 608191 – an 89% increase from 2021 – while suspect identification plummeted to 27,3%, creating an unprecedented justice gap with over 442000 criminal proceedings lacking identified suspects.

The war fundamentally transformed crime patterns. Criminality became significantly more rural, with rural crime increasing from 20% (2013-2021) to 32,3% (2025) of total crimes. The urban-to-rural crime ratio declined from 4:1 to barely 2:1, reflecting occupation-related crimes, abandoned property theft, and frontline zone criminality.

Crime categories showed varied impacts: property crimes initially decreased but fraud increased dramatically (from 23847 in 2021 to 82609 in 2023). Domestic violence crimes surged (from 4800 in 2021 to 8900 in 2024). War crimes exploded from 253 in 2021 to 62128 in 2022. Intentional homicides with firearms peaked at 909 in 2023 – 25 times the 2021 baseline. Paradoxically, despite weapon proliferation, some firearms crimes showed complex patterns rather than simple increases.

Human trafficking statistics revealed troubling gaps: despite 6,5 million refugees creating unprecedented vulnerability, registered cases remained low (105 in 2024), suggesting severe underreporting and possible law enforcement complicity.

The study demonstrates that while Ukraine maintained statistical transparency during existential crisis, institutional effectiveness collapsed under wartime pressures, creating dangerous impunity that threatens post-war reconstruction and rule of law.

The Spark: Mayor’s Assassination

The protests were catalyzed by the November 1st assassination of Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo, who was shot while attending a Day of the Dead festival. Manzo had been vocal about demanding tough action against drug cartels terrorizing Mexican communities. Demonstrators honored his memory by carrying banners reading “We are all Carlos Manzo” and wearing cowboy hats in tribute.

Escalating Violence

The situation deteriorated when protesters dismantled barriers protecting the National Palace, where Sheinbaum resides. Police responded with tear gas, and authorities arrested 20 people on charges including robbery and assault, according to Mexico City security chief Pablo Vazquez.

Political Tensions

President Sheinbaum has attributed the protests to right-wing political opposition, claiming they were funded by her critics. Days before the march, she suggested the demonstration was being promoted by bots online, questioning the authenticity of the grassroots movement while affirming support for freedom of expression.

Sheinbaum’s Balancing Act

Despite maintaining approval ratings above 70% in her first year, Sheinbaum faces mounting pressure. She has made progress on fentanyl-trafficking enforcement—a priority for U.S. President Donald Trump—but resists calls for an all-out drug war, citing the bloody failures of previous administrations’ approaches.

The protests highlight growing frustration with Mexico’s ongoing security crisis, even as the president attempts to chart a different course than her predecessors in addressing cartel violence.

While Trump did not specify which incidents prompted his statement, allegations of genocide against Nigerian Christians have been circulating in some right-wing US circles in recent weeks. However, violence monitoring organizations report no evidence that Christians are being killed at higher rates than Muslims in Nigeria, a country with roughly equal populations of both faiths.

Nigerian Response

Daniel Bwala, an advisor to Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, stated that both leaders share a commitment to fighting “all forms of terrorism against humanity.” He acknowledged that any disagreements about whether violence targets Christians exclusively “or in fact all faiths and no faiths” would be addressed during an upcoming meeting between Trump and Tinubu.

President Tinubu has maintained that religious tolerance exists in Nigeria and emphasized that security challenges affect people “across faiths and regions.”

Trump’s Warning

In a Saturday social media post, Trump announced he had instructed the US Department of War to prepare for “possible action.” He threatened to send military forces into Nigeria “guns-a-blazing” unless the Nigerian government intervenes, warning that all aid to what he termed “the now disgraced country” would be terminated.

“If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!” Trump wrote.

Secretary of State for War Pete Hegseth responded to the post, confirming: “Yes sir. The Department of War is preparing for action. Either the Nigerian Government protects Christians, or we will kill the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.”

On October 31, 2025, the European police agency Europol said that an unnamed number of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina who allegedly fought with Russian ‘private military companies’ Wagner and Redut are among the alleged perpetrators of war crimes on Ukrainian soil.

Other suspects among the total of 654 suspects identified by Europol include citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“These individuals are believed to have committed war crimes such as acts of sexual violence, executions of prisoners of war and executions of civilians,” Europol said in a statement.

The European police agency said this was established by a joint operation it conducted with the Ukrainian and Moldovan police.

“Overall, the investigation led to the identification of a total of 654 members of the Russian private military companies Wagner and Redut, involved in combat operations against Ukraine,” the statement said.

During an operation with Moldova and Ukrainian police, 70 house searches were carried out in Moldova and Ukraine. Firearms and other weapons, ammunition, uniforms, insignia with symbols of paramilitary organisations and electronic equipment were seized.

Investigation Progress

Ukrainian police have successfully identified key elements of the mercenary network, including:

• Recruitment sites for Russian mercenaries
• Training bases and deployment areas
• Command structure and leadership
• Detailed circumstances of participation in hostilities

Investigators have amassed substantial evidence, including documents, video recordings, telephone data, and eyewitness testimonies that confirm war crimes such as the execution of civilians and prisoners of war, as well as the use of prohibited weapons.

Participating Agencies

The operation involves multiple law enforcement and intelligence agencies:

• Main Investigation Department of the National Police of Ukraine
• Department of Strategic Investigations
• Department of Criminal Investigation
• Department of Criminal Analysis
• Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
• Police of the Republic of Moldova

Procedural oversight is provided by prosecutors from the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine and the Prosecutor’s Office for Combating Organized Crime and Special Cases of the Republic of Moldova.

Europol coordinates the operation through its Virtual Command Post, enabling real-time information exchange, evidence sharing, and search result dissemination among all participating countries.

Evidence Seized

Authorities have confiscated significant evidence, including:

• Uniforms and chevrons bearing Wagner PMC symbols
• Mobile phones containing messenger correspondence
• Photo and video materials documenting participation in hostilities in Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo
• Firearms, edged weapons, and ammunition (seized in Moldova)

Criminal Charges

Following the searches, investigators have filed eleven charges against Ukrainian citizens who defected to the enemy during martial law and participated in combat operations with Wagner and Redut PMCs against Ukrainian forces.

Charges: High treason under Part 2, Article 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine
Potential Sentence: 15 years to life imprisonment with property confiscation

These individuals face immediate detention and extradition if they return to Ukraine or enter any state that recognizes Russian PMCs as terrorist organizations.

International Cooperation

Through the Department of International Police Cooperation, Europol’s SIENA channel, and Interpol, Ukrainian authorities have shared information on more than 280 foreign mercenaries who fought against Ukraine with law enforcement agencies in multiple countries, including:

• Azerbaijan
• Armenia
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Moldova
• Kazakhstan
• Uzbekistan
• Tajikistan
• Turkmenistan

In most of these jurisdictions, mercenary activity carries sentences ranging from 5 to 15 years of imprisonment, with life imprisonment possible in certain cases. These crimes fall under universal jurisdiction, allowing prosecution in any country where suspects are located.

Concrete Results

The international cooperation has already produced tangible outcomes:

January 4, 2025: A Kazakh citizen and former Wagner PMC mercenary was detained at the US-Mexico border. Ukrainian police provided American law enforcement with comprehensive evidence of his involvement with Wagner PMC, officially designated as a terrorist organization in the United States.

June 17, 2025: Finnish authorities detained an active Wagner PMC member who personally participated in assaults on Soledar and Bakhmut.

Landmark Prosecution: Ukrainian law enforcement successfully prosecuted a foreign national for the first time under Article 447 (mercenary activity) of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. The Moldovan citizen participated in the capture and destruction of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, as part of Wagner PMC and received both Wagner medals and a state award from the Russian Federation.

Actions in Moldova

Investigative operations in Moldova have identified 25 Moldovan citizens who participated in Wagner PMC hostilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

17 citizens: Procedures underway to declare them wanted

8 citizens: Procedural documents prepared for formal notification of suspicion under Article 141, paragraph 1, of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Moldova (mercenary participation in armed conflict or military operations aimed at overthrowing constitutional order or violating territorial integrity).

In 2023, the number of war crimes increased 246 times as compared to 2021 (62128 crimes).

In 2023, the number of crimes was mostly the same (62667 crimes). However, in 2024, the number of war crimes decreased two times as compared to the previous year.

After 2024, considering the intensification of hostilities between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian aggressors, as well as the use of tactics of mass destruction of civilian infrastructure by Russians, the number of crimes against peace, security of mankind, and international legal order increased again.

Thus, in 2024, a total of 30151 crimes against peace, security of mankind, and international legal order were registered, with 872 criminal proceedings in which concrete individuals were notified of suspicion.

However, in 6 months of 2025, 22338 criminal proceedings were opened in which individuals were notified of suspicion. In 453 criminal proceedings, individuals were notified of suspicion. Accordingly, this means that in the first half of 2025, 74% of the total number of criminal proceedings opened in 2024 were registered.

In 7 months of 2025, 27174 criminal proceedings were opened in which individuals were notified of suspicion. In 494 criminal proceedings, individuals were notified of suspicion. Accordingly, this means that in seven months of 2025, 90% of the total number of criminal proceedings opened in 2024 were registered.

In 8 months of 2025, 32958 criminal proceedings were opened in which individuals were notified of suspicion. In 540 criminal proceedings, individuals were notified of suspicion. Accordingly, this means that in eight months of 2025, 109% of the total number of criminal proceedings opened in 2024 were registered.

In 9 months of 2025, 38509 criminal proceedings were opened in which individuals were notified of suspicion. In 607 criminal proceedings, individuals were notified of suspicion. Accordingly, this means that in eight months of 2025, 128% of the total number of criminal proceedings opened in 2024 were registered.

Some time ago, the government commissioned the National Prison and Probation Service to create sections in prisons for 15- to 17-year-olds who have committed serious crimes. This task is now being expanded to include 13- and 14-year-olds, according to the Swedish Ministry of Justice.

Sweden has been struggling for years with criminal gangs that repeatedly recruit minors to commit serious crimes on their behalf – including murder. Under current law, 13- and 14-year-olds are not yet criminally responsible. A bill proposed by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s liberal-conservative government aims to change this in future for particularly serious crimes.

Lowering the age of criminal responsibility for the most serious crimes is important, among other things, to protect society, but also to help children leave the criminal path, said Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer. He spoke of initially 100 to 150 places for offenders aged 13 to 17.

According to government information, the separate youth departments are to be operational from 1 July 2026. Departments for boys are to be set up in six prisons and for girls in two. The younger and older adolescents are to be separated from each other – and the plans are not expected to violate the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, the ministry said.

Source

The first thing to note here is that, unfortunately, the analysis of police statistics does not allow us to distinguish between cybercrimes committed by Ukrainian citizens or other individuals in the course of traditional criminal activity (mainly for gain) and politically motivated crimes committed by Russian special services or their agents.

Yes, 2022 certainly saw an explosive growth in cybercrime, although, on the other hand, an even greater ‘explosion’ of cybercrimes took place in 2017.

On the other hand, it cannot be denied that the War has demonstrated a more than significant increase in the number of cybercrimes, with the number of such crimes growing significantly each year. Even the first half of 2025 was no exception.

Thus, in the first six months of 2025, the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered 2008 criminal proceedings for cybercrimes (1477 criminal proceedings with identified suspects), which is 49,5% of the total number of similar crimes registered in 2024 (4055 criminal proceedings).

Further, in the period of 9 months 2025, the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered 2508 criminal proceedings for cybercrimes (1830 criminal proceedings with identified suspects), which is 62% of the total number of similar crimes registered in 2024.

Here, we have a look at police statistics of crime of unauthorised interference with the operation of electronic computers, automated systems, computer networks or telecommunications networks (Article 361 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine).

Overall, police statistics on this crime reflect the general statistics on cybercrimes in Ukraine, but there is one exception.

It is interesting to note that, unlike the total number of crimes of unauthorised interference with electronic networks, the number of crimes of this type decreased significantly in 2024.

Similarly, the number of crimes of this type registered in the first half of 2025 also did not show a significant increase compared to 2024.

Thus, in the first six months of 2025, the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered 1029 criminal proceedings for unauthorised interference with electronic networks (779 criminal proceedings with identified suspects), which is 53% of the total number of similar crimes registered in 2024 (1953 criminal proceedings).

Further, in the period of 9 months 2025, the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies registered 1189 criminal proceedings for unauthorised interference with electronic networks (871 criminal proceedings with identified suspects), which is 61% of the total number of similar crimes registered in 2024.